Biased much? [warning: political post]

"MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s" (mastermario) 09/27/2016 at 10:15 • Filed to: politics

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Full disclosure...I don’t know who I will be voting for yet.

I found this “Fact Checking” on Yahoo quite amusing

They are fact checking Trumps comments on murder

Clinton: “Under the current [New York City] mayor, crime has continued to drop, including murders.”

Trump: “You’re wrong...Murders are up.”

Yahoo says Trump is mostly false...

But the statistics they use are

His first year in office saw 333 murders, two fewer than the year before. But his second year in office saw an uptick to 352 murders.

So somehow, murders being up is not actually being up. And Trump was lying.

Haha.

Good god this election is a farce.

Azrek > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:17

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I vote for Canada every year

Cash Rewards > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:19

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That leaves a lot out, potentially. Corresponding population fluctuations could flip that either way if you’re looking at rate per capita. Could still be true just poorly explained?

for Michigan > Azrek 09/27/2016 at 10:19

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For Canada? I’m not sure I’d want him for president.

/Rimshot

Milky > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:20

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Well he also wants to use something unconstitutional to keep murders low and/or use all across the country.

not for canada - australian in disguise > for Michigan 09/27/2016 at 10:20

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fuck off

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Cash Rewards 09/27/2016 at 10:21

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Sure, could be, but the statistics they use are those 2 numbers. Not murders per capita or any other metric, just total number. They say crime is down overall, but that’s not what Trump said. I don’t like either candidate, but shit like this pisses me off.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > not for canada - australian in disguise 09/27/2016 at 10:23

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hey...I thought you were Canadian. You should be apologizing

MontegoMan562 is a Capri RS Owner > Milky 09/27/2016 at 10:23

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that one point should just completely exclude him from the race.

Biggus Dickus (RevsBro) > Cash Rewards 09/27/2016 at 10:24

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I don’t put any value in statistics like these, you can make them say what you want them to.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Milky 09/27/2016 at 10:24

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I’m just commenting on the “fact checking” being biased. I don’t like either candidate and don’t like many positions/policies from both.

victor > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:25

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Except, I think under Bloomberg, it was over 1/day (365/yr). Just because the temperature went up 1-2 degrees in January doesn’t make it hotter than July (unless you’re in the Southern Hemisphere, then the opposite.).

Steve is equipped with Electronic Fool Injection > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:25

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Here’s how I see it, based on transcript:

Hillary: (Mostly correct, with a few inaccuracies and some false statements)

The Donald (tm) : Just making this shit up. Patently false statements, batshit-crazy ideas, and other things that just don’t plain make sense.

Azrek > not for canada - australian in disguise 09/27/2016 at 10:27

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You got my vote!!

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > victor 09/27/2016 at 10:28

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I don’t know what the actual statistics are long term or what not. But, the numbers they use to support their “false” claim show the exact opposite. If you’re going to use statistics to prove a point, use numbers that support your point.

Nibby > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:28

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SCOOB/NIBBY 2016

Daily Drives a Dragon - One Last Lap > Milky 09/27/2016 at 10:31

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I love how he tried to defend it.

ttyymmnn > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:31

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I don’t pretend to understand statistics, and I can guaran-damn-tee you that the vast majority of the American public doesn’t understand them either. So, candidates cherry pick a number that fits their argument and use it. As Cash Rewards hinted at, there is much complexity in the numbers that goes unreported. The simple number of murders is not a useful statistic if you ignore population fluctuations etc., and one number from one year does not indicate any larger trends one way or the other. So, you could correctly say that there have been more murders, while the overall murder rate has not increased. Both statements could be true, but one requires a nuanced understanding of the numbers involved. But the American public is not interested in nuanced explanations that they have no interest in trying to understand. It’s like Dubya’s “You’re either with us or you are with the terrorists.” People like to see the world as black and white, when it’s really gray. Unless one at least tries to understand all sides of an argument, one will never make an informed, non-emotional decision. And that’s where Hillary is at a disadvantage. Trump can blather simple numbers while Hillary tries to explain the deeper meaning, but nobody has time for explanations. They should.

Svend > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:32

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I guess there are things that even Canada feels they shouldn’t be the one apologising. Lol.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Steve is equipped with Electronic Fool Injection 09/27/2016 at 10:32

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My main problem with Hillary is that she’s more of the same shit. She won’t actually change anything if she becomes president. It will be the status quo for another 4-8 years. If Donald wins at least something will change. Maybe Congress finally has a reason to unite (against Donald) and shit actually gets done. Sure he would suck as a president, but the president is not all powerful and there are 2 other branches of government keeping him in check.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > ttyymmnn 09/27/2016 at 10:35

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I just found it amusing that the numbers they use did not support their claim. Had they dug deeper I’m sure they could find some statistics that say murder is down, but the numbers they actually use go contrary to their claim.

fourvalleys > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:37

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Change can also be bad, FYI.

ttyymmnn > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:37

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I edited my comment to add this:

So, you could correctly say that there have been more murders, while the overall murder rate has not increased. Both statements could be true, but one requires a nuanced understanding of the numbers involved.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Nibby 09/27/2016 at 10:37

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A PhD in Eggplant Wizardry makes you 1000% more qualified to be president than our current choices IMO

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > fourvalleys 09/27/2016 at 10:38

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Yea, but do we want more of the same forever?

notsomethingstructural > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:40

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I’ll say this on your theory: it’s interesting. And not saying that pedantically.

MontegoMan562 is a Capri RS Owner > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:40

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I talk about him a lot and I know you’re just researching candidates at this point, but I’d encourage you to take a look at Gary Johnson and see if his ideals match your own.

It’s who I’m voting for.

Tekamul > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:41

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All I know is, there is 0 chance I’m voting for Lester Holt.

That guy’s a push over. He’d never stand up to Putin.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > MontegoMan562 is a Capri RS Owner 09/27/2016 at 10:43

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I have a bit. I think I’ll be voting for him too. At this point I can’t bring myself to vote for Trump or Hillary.

PS9 > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:43

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Murders actually are down drastically for the current year in NYC;

What really happened to New York’s murder rate since Mayor Bill de Blasio took over in 2014? New data from the FBI, released Monday, find that there were 352 murders in New York City in 2015, a rate of 4.1 murders per 100,000 people. That’s up from 333 murders last year, a rate of 3.9 murders per 100,000 people.

But preliminary numbers from the NYPD show a large decline in murders in New York City more recently: In 2016, there have been 252 murders through September 25, a 5.3 percent decline compared to this time in 2015.

CB > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:45

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While I don’t care for the politics, I’ll agree with you that news agencies have no clue how to deal with statistics. I once read a story in our local crap newspaper stating that sexual assaults peaked in one year or something like that, then compared four months of one year, twelve months of the next year, and eight months of the following year as their comparative numbers. It’s like, what the hell is this? You can’t compare those!

Nibby > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:47

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DAMN RIGHT.

All hail the Eggplant Wizard

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > PS9 09/27/2016 at 10:47

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Yea, I saw that too, but it’s not quite comparing apples to apples is it? The numbers may actually show that murders are down, but that’s not what their numbers showed, though they claimed it did.

fourvalleys > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:47

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I mean, if you’re giving me the options of more of the same or a different but significantly worse scenario, I guess I have to say I’m pretty happy.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > fourvalleys 09/27/2016 at 10:49

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I don’t really understand this line of thinking. You don’t know things will get worse. Sure, he may be a bad president, but that may drive Congress to do something for once. Presidents aren’t all powerful like so many seem to think, or at least suggest.

TheHondaBro > Nibby 09/27/2016 at 10:51

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HARAMBE/IRWIN 2016

TheHondaBro > not for canada - australian in disguise 09/27/2016 at 10:52

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no

fourvalleys > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:55

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I’m not really worried about his policy proposals. None of the lofty, crazy things he’s proposed would pass Congress. I’d be much more nervous about about a president who doesn’t think before he speaks. In my opinion, a president shouldn’t insult anybody .

MontegoMan562 is a Capri RS Owner > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:56

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I’m glad to hear there’s another on OPPO that doesn’t succumb to the media efforts to force you into one of the 2 parties.

TheHondaBro > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:58

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But the president is the one who represents our country. Children look up to the president regardless of who it is. Do we really want that person to be Donald Trump?

PS9 > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 10:58

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Can you provide a link to the original article?

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > PS9 09/27/2016 at 11:03

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https://gma.yahoo.com/debate-fact-check-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-stack-014855559--abc-news-topstories.html

For Sweden > Azrek 09/27/2016 at 11:04

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barf

For Sweden > TheHondaBro 09/27/2016 at 11:04

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Cecil/Harambe 2016 you mean

TheHondaBro > For Sweden 09/27/2016 at 11:05

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HARAMBE IS NO ONE’S VICE PRESIDENT

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > MontegoMan562 is a Capri RS Owner 09/27/2016 at 11:08

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It sucks right. We shouldn’t have just an either or choice.

Milky > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 11:08

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Just for sake of conversation. Shit is pretty good right now. Trump’s job (and really any opposing party’s job after 8 years of an president) is to tell you what they’ll do different/how bad it is. He is good at that.

Seemingly everyone I know has disposable income ... and I live in Detroit. Our economy is well, esp. compared to other countries after we crashed the economy. I’m okay with “more of the same shit.”

Get positive Mario.

PS9 > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 11:09

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They are in fact including the 2016 numbers in their claim. They aren’t separate. They are in fact down 4% YTD, which is why Trump gets a ‘mostly false’ from them.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > PS9 09/27/2016 at 11:11

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It’s not quite comparing apples to apples though. I don’t think you can compare part of a year. Even if you do include that though, 4% down year over year still is 338 murders, more than his first year and more than the year before he took office.

pauljones > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 11:18

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Or it may not. It may just sink into further inefficacy. That’s a dangerous gamble. There are certainly times and situations where it is appropriate to take that risk. This is neither the time nor situation - not when our entire country is in the balance. Hillary may not be great. She may well be more of the same. But the devil you know is a safer bet than the devil you don’t.

Like many, I, too, want to see some change. But I will not jump on the first promise of “change” that comes along just to spite Hillary Clinton, or because it’s simply the first thing that comes along. She’s not worth acting that stupidly over. I will wait for the right change to come at the right time, and then I will invest my efforts into it.

Donald Trump is... not the right change.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Milky 09/27/2016 at 11:19

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Haha...I’ll try to be more positive. I don’t think things are terrible, but they could be much better. Our healthcare needs fixing (we either need single payer healthcare or full private, Obamacare is the worst of both). Our tax system needs to be overhauled (corporate taxes should be lower, income and capital gains taxes needs to be much higher for the top earners, and we need to outlaw giving tax breaks to specific companies because they only go to the largest ones). And we do need to rethink our trade deals (I don’t know which direction is best, but free trade everywhere is not really helping Americans).

Breakfast Burrito: The True Resident Burrito > Milky 09/27/2016 at 11:23

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Might I direct your attention to Terry vs Ohio which was upheld by the supreme court and been law now for almost 50 years...

Lester Holt’s “fact checking” amounted to saying some judge in New York didn’t like it. Same with this article claiming murders didn’t go up when the numbers show they did. And still in these comments we have olympic level mental gymnastics trying to say the “fact check” still proves Trump is wrong. Idk which direction murder rates went, but if yahoo saying “Trump is wrong that total murders went up” when the number shows he’s right, it’s easy to see their bias.

“Fact check” has lost all meaning because everyone who does it is no different than a candidate cherry-picking information that suits them.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > pauljones 09/27/2016 at 11:23

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I don’t know that I will vote for either honestly. If we voted today I would be voting for Gary Johnson. I wish Sanders had won the democratic primary, I would be voting for him if he had. Trump is mostly a moron and Clinton seems to lack any conviction (she seems to change positions based on the latest polling).

pauljones > MontegoMan562 is a Capri RS Owner 09/27/2016 at 11:27

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I like the guy, but he is too small to have any chance of actually winning anything. At most, he’ll get enough votes to trigger a Perot effect, and remove the votes that one party would otherwise have been able to win with.

Had he been out there a little more early on, and been making a long-term effort, I’d absolutely consider him. But he just hasn’t been doing that, and he doesn’t have the presence or even the platform necessary to provide a credible challenge to the established parties as a result.

This is just the reality of the situation. At best, he can use this as a means of getting his name out, and setting himself up on the path to make a serious run in 8 years. At worst, he could remove enough votes from the Democratic party to allow Trump to win the presidency - a thought that, as a middle-class white American male, categorically terrifies me.

PS9 > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 11:28

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It is apple-to-apples. They are comparing part of this year to part of last year. Look at the paragraph they actually wrote;

So far this year, murders in New York City are down more than 4 percent than the same time period last year (246 murders through Sept. 18, 2016, versus 257 murders during the same time last year).

It would of course be invalid to compare 2015 murders to 2016 YTD, but that is not what they are doing.

Even if you do include that though, 4% down year over year still is 338 murders, more than his first year and more than the year before he took office.

...but less than 2015. Trump is incorrect to claim that ‘murders are up’ in NYC when the stat shows they are in decline, which is what gets him a ‘mostly false’. It’s also not correct to claim that they have been continuing to decline as Hillary has, since the decline only started. However, she is still correct to say all other major felonies there have declined since DeBlasio took office.

GTI Sprinks > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 11:28

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That’s murder per capita... in fact the best way to show that murders are technically down. Because NYC 2014 does not feature the same population as NYC 2015 or 2016.

pauljones > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 11:31

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As said to MontegoMan elsewhere, I can understand where you’re coming from. 

I like the guy, but he is too small to have any chance of actually winning anything. At most, he’ll get enough votes to trigger a Perot effect, and remove the votes that one party would otherwise have been able to win with.

Had he been out there a little more early on, and been making a long-term effort, I’d absolutely consider him. But he just hasn’t been doing that, and he doesn’t have the presence or even the platform necessary to provide a credible challenge to the established parties as a result.

This is just the reality of the situation. At best, he can use this as a means of getting his name out, and setting himself up on the path to make a serious run in 8 years. At worst, he could remove enough votes from the Democratic party to allow Trump to win the presidency - a thought that, as a middle-class white American male, categorically terrifies me.

not for canada - australian in disguise > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 11:43

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We don’t apoligise anymore. We elbow.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > TheHondaBro 09/27/2016 at 11:44

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MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > PS9 09/27/2016 at 11:44

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It’s still ‘up’ from when he took office though. I think it deserved a ‘Yes and no’ rating. Not a ‘mostly false’ since, as our discussion has shown, statistics are extremely nuanced.

Both are technically right...murders are up since he took office, but they have been dropping the last 2 years.

There are three types of lies -- lies, damn lies, and statistics

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Steve is equipped with Electronic Fool Injection 09/27/2016 at 11:44

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My favorite: arguing with the mod about the constitutionality of Stop And Frisk.

Rico > TheHondaBro 09/27/2016 at 11:45

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I agree the President represents America but I have to say I’ve never looked up to the President as a child. None of my childhood friends ever did either. I actually don’t know any children who say they look upto President X for any reason.

Cash Rewards > Biggus Dickus (RevsBro) 09/27/2016 at 11:45

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Yeah, unless you’re showing me the whole picture, I’m not interested. And causation versus correlation is exploited all the damn time.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 11:46

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One point: for the first time EVER in the United States, the police are being held accountable for their actions and institutional racism is being exposed in undeniable ways. I have difficulty seeing that trend continuing given Trump’s comments on “Law and Order” last night.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > TheHondaBro 09/27/2016 at 11:47

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Put another way, the POTUS represents you and me and I see nothing in Donald Trump the represents me. Not one thing.

TheHondaBro > Rico 09/27/2016 at 11:48

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Well I didn’t really know the President by name, but as a child, I thought the President was the coolest person ever.

This is Bush I’m talking about here.

Milky > Breakfast Burrito: The True Resident Burrito 09/27/2016 at 11:48

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Pretty sure more than the judge didn’t like it.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 11:49

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Our healthcare system is a disaster, though I am grateful that I have access to it, even though that access costs me more than my mortgage (PITI) each month.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > pauljones 09/27/2016 at 11:50

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I think any vote not cast for Donald Trump is cast for Hillary Clinton.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Breakfast Burrito: The True Resident Burrito 09/27/2016 at 11:53

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I don’t think any reasonable person would take issue with an officer stopping and frisking a person he or she thought “may be armed and presently dangerous.” The problem as I see it is that too many of those stopped and frisked are “Black and/or presently Brown.”

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > MontegoMan562 is a Capri RS Owner 09/27/2016 at 11:55

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There’s a gradual shift taking place from the Old School to the New. A prominent way that this is happening is when videos of police executing people are surfacing and reasonable Whites are saying, “Damn, I just didn’t wanna believe that it was that bad.”

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 09/27/2016 at 11:55

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There are few things I agree with from both candidates.

TheHondaBro > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 09/27/2016 at 11:55

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Exactly that. Not everyone may agree on Obama’s policies, but he gave the country a fantastic global image.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > not for canada - australian in disguise 09/27/2016 at 11:56

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And pour maple syrup on inappropriate things.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > ttyymmnn 09/27/2016 at 11:57

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Morning, Ttyymmnn. Please see my remarks above. Murder rates are less important than the viewing, by Whites, of cops executing (unarmed Black) people. Cops are finally being held accountable.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 09/27/2016 at 11:58

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It really is. Obamacare seems to be the worst of single payer and private all rolled into one turd of a program.

ttyymmnn > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 09/27/2016 at 12:03

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Except Trump is not interested in holding them accountable, just in putting more of them on the street and giving them unconstitutional powers.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > ttyymmnn 09/27/2016 at 12:05

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Precisely.

ttyymmnn > TheHondaBro 09/27/2016 at 12:07

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The man in presidential . Period. Trump is a buffoon.

pauljones > Rico 09/27/2016 at 12:14

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I looked up to Bill Clinton. As a burgeoning middle schooler in full puberty mode, I thought he had the most awesome job ever: being president and getting laid

pauljones > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 09/27/2016 at 12:15

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At this stage in the game, that’s exactly correct.

Breakfast Burrito: The True Resident Burrito > Milky 09/27/2016 at 12:15

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Well you can argue whether it’s good or bad, I didn’t say either. I just said it’s untrue to call it “Unconstitutional”like you just did.

Since you are going there though, might I direct you to NYPD crime data for 2015? It shows actual crime suspects and arrests made by race, and it’s a lot more honest than comparing the stops to the population and citing Mother Jones.

There’s 16 pages of it so I’m obviously not going to post all of it, but I encourage you to read the report here .

Rico > pauljones 09/27/2016 at 12:24

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Hah! That’s funny!.

yamahog > Milky 09/27/2016 at 12:31

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Thank you. I about wanted to throw my TV every time that moldy blob of butterscotch pudding mouthfarted about Michigan.

yamahog > Breakfast Burrito: The True Resident Burrito 09/27/2016 at 12:38

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May I direct you to proof of the NYPD’S racial profiling which creates those crime stats?

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/nypd-admits-quotas-summons-article-1.2488316

Milky > Breakfast Burrito: The True Resident Burrito 09/27/2016 at 12:43

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Yes black people committed more crime. The fact I care about is 2.3 million vs 435,000 stops for the same amount illegal things.

Pistol Whipped Cream > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 12:47

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haha “facts”

Rico > TheHondaBro 09/27/2016 at 12:48

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Bush?

MontegoMan562 is a Capri RS Owner > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 09/27/2016 at 13:16

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I make no excuses for the officers that have killed people when there were OBVIOUS other options they could’ve taken. But I also see no one talking about all the successful stops. The news coverage would imply every african american pulled over gets shot. There are plenty of interactions that don’t go that route. I hope every officer that kills someone on the job is investigated and CHARGED if they were wrong (lately there has been a lot of wrong and I hope a lot of charges are coming).

MontegoMan562 is a Capri RS Owner > pauljones 09/27/2016 at 13:20

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He has a bigger base and following than the polls actually count. Major polls don’t poll anyone from 18-34 which is his biggest demographic.

I also believe he’s stealing more votes from the disgruntled Republicans that can’t stand Trump than he is from the Democrats, but he is in fact taking from Dems too.

bhtooefr > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 09/27/2016 at 13:23

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I’ll be voting for Jill Stein.

Hillary’s corrupt, will sell those of us on the left out in a heartbeat, and will get us deeper into the Middle Eastern quagmire, Trump will probably start a civil war (and considering he’s doing this to inflate his ego, he doesn’t care if he’s seen as an evil dictator - in fact, Hitler’s name will last longer than most US presidents, so he may WANT to be seen as an evil dictator), and Gary Johnson’s politics are not at all aligned with mine.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > not for canada - australian in disguise 09/27/2016 at 13:34

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Oh shit...the Canadians are going full hockey mode.